Hurricane season is here
Last Updated on 2/10/2012
Published on 5/30/2008
On our list of most unwanted guests this year are Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Willfred.
Those are the storm names for the upcoming hurricane season that begins Sunday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.
The bad news is government forecasters predict a busier-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season -- seven hurricanes overall, including three major storms packing winds of at least 111 mph.
James Mahoney, deputy administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Associated Press that higher-than-normal ocean temperatures and other factors should make conditions ripe for hurricanes this year.
Overall, 11 to 15 tropical storms are expected to develop during the season. The historical average is 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes.
Their forecast nearly mirrors that of Colorado State University tropical storm researcher William Gray, who in April forecast 12 tropical storms for this season, with seven becoming hurricanes.
Last year, there were 12 tropical storms and four hurricanes.
The last 12 years have been the most active on record for hurricanes, and that trend could last another 20 years. The South Carolina coast has not seen the landfall of a major hurricane (category three, four or five) since Hurricane Hugo (a Category 4) hit McClellanville in 1989.
"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Mr. Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."
Forecasters fear the years since have made coastal residents lazy and lackadaisical in our preparedness for hurricanes. And that could prove deadly.
There is a 48 percent chance a storm will come ashore on the east coast of the United States, including South Carolina, Mr. Gray said.
The message is to prepare for the one storm that might come ashore. If you're prepared for that storm, you're pretty much prepared for others, no matter what the numbers are.
The government will issue five-day hurricane forecasts this season, replacing the three-day advisories used since 1964. Weather experts say that will allow accurate, longer-range outlooks for increasingly populated coastal areas.
Residents should put together an emergency kit of food, water and medicine that will last three days. The important thing to remember now is assume the worse and be ready. These steps could prepare your home and family for a hurricane:
* Prepare a disaster supply kit -- Water for three days, food, first aid kit, medicine, glasses, tools, games for children, clothing and bedding.
* Check battery-powered equipment -- flashlights, radio, cell-phones.
* Have a car emergency kit -- blanket, booster cables, fire extinguisher, maps, shovel, tire repair kit, food and bottled water.
* Search your home for hazards -- repair defective electrical wiring, trim trees, clean and repair chimneys, secure the water heater and strap it to a wall.
* Make an escape plan -- develop an evacuation plan with a place to meet or leave messages.
The next time disaster strikes, you may not have much time to act. Prepare now for a sudden emergency. Discuss these ideas with your family, then develop an emergency plan. Post the plan where everyone can see it -- on a refrigerator or bulletin board.
